easymath

Illustration for riddle: If you toss a coin 10 times and it lands heads up every time, what are the chances it will land head — Can you figure out this riddle?

If you toss a coin 10 times and it lands heads up every time, what are the chances it will land heads up if you toss it again?

There is a 50/50 chance of each toss being either heads or tails. The previous toss does not impact the next toss.

Why this works

This riddle plays with the concept of independence in probability. Each toss of a coin is an independent event, meaning the outcome of previous tosses does not influence the next one. Therefore, regardless of how many times you've tossed heads before, the chance of the next toss being heads or tails remains a straightforward 50/50. It highlights a common misconception that streaks might affect future outcomes, but in reality, each flip is a fresh start!

Common Wrong Answers

“100%”

This guess assumes that the previous outcomes affect the next toss, which is a common misconception. Each coin toss is an independent event.

“0%”

This guess incorrectly suggests that the coin is biased towards tails after landing heads multiple times, ignoring the fact that the coin's fairness does not change.

“10%”

This guess misunderstands probability in this context; it incorrectly implies that previous outcomes reduce the likelihood of getting heads, rather than recognizing the 50/50 chance for each individual toss.

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